Ganesh Krishnan 's Blog

07-May-2014   |   Agriculture   |   12:43 PM

India's wheat, rice & corn exports may fall 29% in 2014-15

India's exports of wheat, rice and corn are expected to drop sharply by 29 percent to 13.5 million tonnes in the 2014-15 marketing year due to sluggish global prices, according to a USDA report.

The combined shipments of wheat, rice and corn from India are estimated to touch 19 million tonnes in the ongoing 2013-14 marketing year, it said.

The marketing year for wheat runs from April to March; for rice, from October to September and for corn, from November to October.

"Exports of wheat, rice and corn during the 2014-15 marketing year are forecast down from the year prior, due to softening global prices," the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its latest report.

Out of 13.5 million tonnes of cereals, India is expected to ship 8 million tonnes of rice, 3 million tonnes of wheat and 2.5 million tonnes of corn in 2014-15, it said.

According to USDA, wheat exports are forecast to halve to 3 million tonnes in 2014-15, most of which will be private exports and some spillover of government wheat from the existing current 2 million tonnes quota announced in August 2013.

"With international prices expected to remain depressed during the upcoming marketing year, it will be very difficult for the government to export wheat at USD 260 per tonne floor price," the report said.

On rice exports, the USDA said it has forecast it to be lower at 8 million tonnes (both Basmati and non-Basmati) for 2014-15 marketing year, as against 10 million tonnes this year, on expected weak international prices and expected lower import demand from Iran.

Trade sources report that exports of long grain Basmati rice to Iran have slowed since October 2013 following the withdrawal of Iran sanctions by the US and five other nations, it added.

On corn exports, the USDA said the shipments are likely to drop further to 2.5 million tonnes in 2014-15 from 3 million tonnes this year, on expected strong domestic demand.

"Market sources report that Indian corn is barely competitive in the global market due to weak international prices," it said.

Typically Indian corn is discounted for quality vis-a-vis other origins and export volumes largely depend on the price competitiveness of Indian corn in the global market, it said.

Any significant improvement in international corn prices or weakening of the value of Indian rupee may improve the export prospects, it added.

USDA expects India's rice production to be 103 million tonnes and wheat output at 92.46 million tonnes in the ongoing 2013-14 marketing year.

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